Download 14th International Probabilistic Workshop by Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe, Dirk Proske PDF

By Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe, Dirk Proske

This booklet offers the lawsuits of the 14th foreign Probabilistic Workshop that used to be held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic equipment are at the moment of an important value for study and advancements within the box of engineering, which face demanding situations awarded via new fabrics and applied sciences and speedily altering societal wishes and values. modern wishes relating to, for instance, performance-based layout, service-life layout, life-cycle research, product optimization, evaluate of present buildings and structural robustness supply upward push to new advancements in addition to actual and essentially appropriate probabilistic and statistical engineering how to aid those advancements. those lawsuits are a worthwhile source for a person attracted to modern advancements within the box of probabilistic engineering applications.

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A lack of probabilistic context) Best is, therefore, to use black swans, perfect storms, nightmare scenarios and unknowable unknowns only in a very narrow metaphoric sense, or—better—not to use them in the context of design, assessment, and risk analysis whatsoever. Above all, one should avoid using BS, PS and UU as an excuse for failure to act effectively and proactively. In the following two sections we focus on two case-studies of perceived black swans and/or perfect storms: • the 2000 Carlsbad pipeline rupture incident (Sect.

Critically, a reasoned reaction to surprise must always be at hand. Uncertainty should never be talked about as being a synonym of fear. Among designers and decision makers for different systems, networks, and operations, the transfer and the sharing of all available knowledge needs to be enforced. Importantly, risk communication should be attentive to the many perils of disinformation, lack of information, and over-information. Each may stoke fear in a different manner; to quote Bruce Schneier (2013): “my nightmare scenario is that people keep talking about their nightmare scenarios”.

In civil engineering a simple example are stress-strain curves; in the first part linear, they become non-linear after the elastic limit. The specific form depends on the material. So, extrapolating from the linear relationship at the lower stress rates would give wrong strain values. Consider now an example in reliability. In a number of cases it is reasonable to assume that the tail distributions of random variables are different from their distribution in the central part (Maes and Breitung 1994; Acar and Ramu 2014).

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